Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Ken Pomeroy Has Duke at No. 1 in Preseason Rankings, Kentucky is No. 2

Ken Pomeroy has the Duke Blue Devils ranked No. 1 in his preseason college basketball rankings at

Pomeroy has Kentucky at No. 2 and Louisville at No. 3.

Here is a brief explanation of how he comes up with his statistical rankings:

People always want to know why a team is ranked in an unexpected spot. Think of the ratings formula as [team baseline + personnel]. The personnel portion is looking at who is returning from last season’s roster, how much the returnees played, what kind of role each returnee had, and what class they are in. Actually, there’s a two-year window for this, so Butler gets some credit for getting Roosevelt Jones back, for instance.

The system does not give any special consideration to new players entering the program. There is some credit given for high-profile recruits, but the poor performances in 2012-13 of UCLA and Kentucky, among others, in recent years have tended to mute the impact of recruits in the model. Recruiting rankings are useful, but the impact of high-level prospects on their respective teams as freshman can vary wildly.

There is no allowance for impact transfers or redshirt freshmen. So if your program has a high-profile transfer joining the team, the system may be underrating it. But this is where the program baseline can pick up some of the slack. The system is looking at the performance of a team over the past five seasons and its men’s basketball budget over the two most recent seasons for which data is available to figure out what should be expected of a team in the absence of any other information. A lot more weight is given to the past two seasons in terms of team performance. So the system is going to be forgiving about personnel losses on teams like Louisville and Syracuse and Creighton that spend a bunch of money on men’s hoops and have had recent success.

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Check Out the Complete Rankings

Top 10:

1. Duke
2. Kentucky
3. Louisville
4. Kansas
5. Arizona
6. Wisconsin
7. Florida
8. Virginia
9. Villanova
10. Wichita State

Other Kentucky Teams:

94. Murray State
126. Western Kentucky
151. Eastern Kentucky
172. Morehead State
317. Northern Kentucky

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